Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
